Structural Analysis
Current events through the lens of structural analysis
Boris Cherny, who built Claude Code, calls himself a "builder" and has not written a line of code by hand since last November. "Coding is solved," he says. But what does "humans will no longer be needed" overlook? Building an app is a cycle — finding structure, forming a hypothesis, and verifying it against reality. AI is not a partner that hands you the right answer; it is a tool that gives you the speed to keep up with change. From beside a field in Tokushima, where phosphate fertilizer is running out, and by way of Socrates, the printing press, and a Second Renaissance, this piece asks what it really means to build in dialogue with AI.
Microsoft CEO Satya Nadella wrote on his personal blog about "model overhang — capability outrunning our ability to put it to real-world use." But if that diagnosis is right, the place to invest is not $190 billion a year of infrastructure but the side that uses the capability we already have. AI chief Suleyman has openly said the goal is to "ultimately eliminate" what Microsoft pays Anthropic — exposing a structure in which the intelligence running underneath can be silently swapped out. Ironically, the very "intelligence that can replace an engineer" they spent so much to build has become the best partner for users who want to leave the cloud and self-host. With ONLYOFFICE, Ryzen AI Max, and open-weight models, this piece asks whether you can take a Microsoft 365 (Standard + Copilot) equivalent back into your own hands.
Microsoft's AI-first strategy is creating two problems. The first is internal to Windows 11 PCs — long-term support is not guaranteed past 2029, and the "AI PC" branding is largely cosmetic. The second is the bigger one this strategy itself produces: explosive data center expansion driving electricity demand and emissions. Windows 10's October 2025 end-of-support could push up to 400 million PCs into the e-waste stream, around 88 million tonnes CO2e from manufacturing alone. Microsoft's electricity use is up 168% since 2020 and total emissions are up 23.4%. Doubling data centers in two years while pledging carbon-negative by 2030 is structurally incompatible.
Windows 10 support ended in October 2025. Hundreds of millions of PCs are flagged "not compatible with Windows 11" — yet the hardware is fine. The same hardware runs Linux normally, and old PCs are arguably better suited to Linux. The "Linux is hard" reputation reversed twice in the AI era: AI is unusually good at teaching commands, and Flathub now offers a cleaner GUI app store than the Microsoft Store. With AI beside you, Linux commands are no longer hard. Now is the time to try Linux.
The widely circulated advice — \"in the AI era, become a specialized engineer; hold a deep specialty AI cannot take, like security or ML\" — misreads the structure. AI is absorbing the whole layer of software engineering, not a particular subdomain. The medieval analogue: telling a serf, \"become a more specialized serf and you will be free.\" Freedom comes from stepping out of the lord's structure of control, not from deeper specialization. Software engineer → builder, software engineering → liberal arts, employment → free person — these three transitions are unfolding inside the Second Renaissance (the historical turning point of the AI era, with the LLM playing the role of the printing press). Creation and upheaval are two faces of the same time, and Trump is the canonical figure on the upheaval side. The article compresses aiseed.dev's eleven-chapter \"AI-Native Ways of Working — Software\" sub-series into three pairs of words.
Microsoft CEO Satya Nadella has poured trillions of yen into AI, made a massive investment in OpenAI, restarted a nuclear power plant, and is building giant data centers around the world. By any conventional measure, this looks like a decisive bid for victory in the AI era. But viewed through Hegel's concept of the "cunning of reason," a different picture emerges. The $13 billion investment in OpenAI that ignited a global AI race, the embedding of autonomous agents into Windows and Office that produced the "Microslop" phenomenon, and the giant data center construction that triggered a global scramble for power and water—these three bets reveal a structure in which the one aiming to be the era's victor ends up playing the role of "the one who closes out the previous era."
"Python only," "declarative," and "cross-platform GUI" — Flet delivers all three for real, and as a UI stack for line-of-business software it reclaims the productivity Visual Basic 6 once had, on a modern foundation. Using aiseed-weather (a mid-size weather studio integrating JMA, ECMWF, and Open-Meteo; Flet 0.85 + Python 3.13; 6,800 lines of components) as the subject, we walk through what Flet actually solves for business GUIs — declarative components, reactive shared state, vector charts in pure Python, native async I/O, embedded terminals, and its synergy with AI-assisted coding — entirely through real code.
In December 2017, I wrote an article on Qiita titled "Python in Excel?" Eight years later, Excel has Python — but every advantage I described back then has been stripped away. No local execution. No VS Code debugging. No Git version control. This is not Microsoft's lack of capability. It is a deliberate business decision to force computation into Azure. But AI has progressed to the point where working without Office is now more efficient. The time to leave the Microsoft cage has come.
As of May 2026, the latest date Microsoft officially guarantees Windows 11 Home/Pro support is October 12, 2027 — just 1 year and 5 months from today. There is no roadmap for Windows 12. There is no guarantee that a PC bought today will run Windows in five years. Windows is no longer a platform — it has become an asset to be drained. There is only one option left: escape the sinking ship.
In April 2026, Elon Musk and Sam Altman face each other in a federal courtroom in Oakland. Musk claims OpenAI "stole a charity." Altman's lawyers reply that Musk simply "didn't get his way." Testimony, cross-examination, and private emails fill the record. Yet both men share the same belief: that AGI can be built with enough capital. Human intelligence, however, rests on four billion years of biological evolution—a body that knows pain, hunger, and the possibility of death. That cannot be bought with capital, data, or compute.
In January 2026, Microsoft made offline use of Windows effectively impossible. Windows has become an OS that cannot run without constant connection to US data centers. Meanwhile, Japan's data centers and submarine cable landing points are concentrated in the Kanto region. The Nankai Trough earthquake will paralyze western Japan with communication failures; the Tokyo Inland earthquake will simultaneously stop cloud services nationwide. Government offices and hospitals will stop functioning, and lives will be lost.
In the enterprise AI market, Anthropic has surpassed Microsoft. Copilot's active usage rate sits at 35.8%, with an NPS of -19.8. Due to the architectural limits of LLMs (O(N²·d)), hallucinations are mathematically unavoidable. Yet Microsoft continues to embed Copilot into the deepest layers of the OS, while its data center build-out drains the world's memory, electricity, and naphtha. This piece argues for an urgent migration to Linux.
By autumn 2026, fertilizer stockpiles run out; from 2027 onward, phosphate fertilizer becomes effectively unavailable in Japan. The product-import route (76% dependent on China) halts, the domestic-processing route hits its limits, and sewage-sludge recovery is blocked by PFAS contamination — taken together, the shift to natural farming becomes not ideology but necessity.
About 40% of GitHub Copilot-generated code contains critical vulnerabilities; more than 15% of commits introduce new bugs. From the moment an AI acknowledged its own structural flaw, through Pearce et al., Veracode, and Fortune 50 findings, to the Model Carousel phenomenon, the 8,000-token ceiling, and the limits of defensive filters.
In April 2026, Claude Mythos and Gemma 4 arrived. Half a year to a year until Mythos is released publicly. The moment it is, attackers gain the same capability. Windows/Office dependency, internal-system black boxes, CMS — the response is urgent. Start today or it's too late.
The Strait of Hormuz blockade is cutting off raw materials for medical supplies, semiconductors, and jet fuel. Meanwhile AI can now find vulnerabilities in hours and auto-generate attack code. These two crises are connected at the root.
Naphtha shortages from the Hormuz blockade spread to food packaging, medical disposables, pharmaceuticals, and defense materials. Japan's reserves buy time but cannot save imported goods. America keeps commodity plastics with ethane but faces aromatic shortages that reach military supplies. China has relative advantage through coal chemistry but remains vulnerable on methanol, LNG, and sulfur.
WordPress powers 43% of all websites — a massive monoculture. Tightly coupled AI plugins bring the same structural vulnerability as the financial system's Copilot problem to the entire web.
Fed Chair Powell and Treasury Secretary Bessent urgently summoned bank CEOs. Analysis of the systemic cyber threat Mythos poses to the financial system through the COBOL-Copilot-SWIFT three-layer structure.
Two forced transitions are unfolding at once. The fertilizer crisis pushes a partial shift to natural farming, while Claude Mythos forces companies to bring system development and defense in-house. Japan's survival strategy across technology, diplomacy, and networks.
Destroyed Middle Eastern fertilizer plants need gas turbines to rebuild, but AI companies have booked production lines through 2029. Food or AI — which gets the turbines? Japan holds the key.
Even after the Strait of Hormuz reopens, restoring destroyed petrochemical facilities will take 3–5 years. Fertilizer feedstocks are petroleum byproducts, making supply recovery a multi-year problem. Japan has an alternative — natural farming.
Found a bug in markdown-it-py where bold fails in mixed CJK/ASCII text. Claude Code identified the root cause, wrote a 6-line fix, forked the repo, and submitted a PR — all in a single session.
Trump threatens to permanently destroy Iran's power plants. But in the Middle East, destroying power plants means destroying desalination. The countries that can't survive without desalination are not Iran — they're Saudi Arabia, UAE, and Israel.
On April 5, 2026, Trump declared 'Tuesday will be Power Plant Day.' What happens if Iran's power plants are destroyed? Chain of retaliation, 62 million lose drinking water, global fertilizer crisis — the world's supply chains stop simultaneously.
Structure doesn't lie.
Current events prove it, every time.
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For the complete structural analysis, see the Insights series.